Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

809
FXUS61 KBGM 250840
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
440 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions again today with increasing chances of rain and
thunderstorms this evening. A strong cold front moves through
Saturday with cooler and windy conditions into Sunday before
warm weather returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Warm conditions with well above average temperatures expected
for Friday; mid to high 70s, with some valley areas having
potential to hit 80 degrees again, similar to yesterday. A weak
warm front associated with an approaching system will lift
northward across our area, which will increase chances for
scattered rain showers this evening. There are chances for some
isolated thunderstorms, but lack of instability may limit
initiation. Rain showers and slight chances for embedded storms
continue through Friday night.

The main cold frontal passage happens Saturday early to mid
morning, and rain intensity will likely increase with frontal
forcing. Rain showers continue through Saturday morning, but
will likely start to taper off through the afternoon. With PWAT
values of 1.1 to 1.3, overall expected precipitation totals of
0.5 to 1.5 inches over the course of 24 hours, as well as high
values needed to exceed flash flood guidance, flooding of any
sort will likely not be a concern. Saturday temperatures, even
with the passage of a cold front, will still be above average in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
420 AM Update

A slow moving, closed mid and upper level low pressure system
will be over the area Saturday night into Sunday. Trends are for
this low to linger longer and exit the area slower on Sunday.
Wrap around moisture and scattered to numerous showers will be
over the forecast area Saturday night and at least into Sunday
morning, with the low centered near Watertown overnight, Albany
by daybreak and Boston MA by early Sunday afternoon. A core of
colder air, with 1000-500mb thicknesses around 537dm, 850mb
temperatures near -4C and surface temperatures in the mid-30s to
around 40 will be present over the region Saturday night. With
this thermal setup, there will be the potential for some wet
snow flakes to mix in, mainly over the higher elevations...with
no accumulation expected. Lingering isolated to scattered rain
showers moves east of I-81 Sunday afternoon with clouds
decreasing and clearing from west to east late in the afternoon
or early evening. In fact, current forecast call for mostly
sunny conditions along and west of I-81 by 3-5 PM. Breezy NW
winds are expected Saturday night and Sunday, 10-20 mph with
gusts up to around 25-35 mph at times.

High pressure moves in Sunday night and Monday, with dry and
mostly clear/sunny weather expected. Winds diminish to 5-10 mph
and after a cool start in the 30s to low 40s it will reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday afternoon. Went a few degrees
above the NBM guidance for highs, with full sunshine and good
boundary layer mixing expected...this will also lead to lower
dew points and RH values in the afternoon. High pressure remains
in control Monday night with just a few clouds around and light
south winds. Not as cool, with lows in the 40s for most locations.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

440 AM Update

The 500mb ridge axis moves overhead Tuesday morning, with 850mb
temperatures peaking around +14 C in the afternoon. Guidance
supports highs reaching well above average levels in the upper
70s to lower 80s over the entire region. However, our next cold
front will likely be approaching late in the day Tuesday or
Tuesday evening. Still a good deal of uncertainty on the
exact timing of the front, and if the front arrives in the late
afternoon hours around peak heating, then more instability will
be available and thus a higher potential for thunderstorms.
This will be something to watch closely as we get closer in time
and see more details. Some guidance is showing deep layer shear
on the order of 35-50 kts as well, so any severe potential will
depend on the timing of the incoming cold front. No outlooks
from SPC yet for this time frame.

By Wednesday, the cold front will be washing out south of here
with just a slight chance for a few lingering showers. Much
drier air works its way into the region, especially in the mid
levels of the atmosphere. There will be the potential for a
large temperature gradient...with highs in the 60s for CNY/Southern
Tier and 70 to 75 degrees for most of NE PA...if the current frontal
timing holds. A Canadian high looks to keep the area dry
Wednesday night into Thursday with seasonably mild temperatures.
The next low pressure system is then progged to move into the
area from the Ohio Valley Thursday night into next Friday,
bringing a round of moderate rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for all terminals through 00Z Saturday.
An incoming front will bring stratiform rain that will gradually
deteriorate after 00Z, falling to MVFR between 01Z and 03Z.
Probability for conditions to worsen to IFR around 04/05Z for
all terminals is increasing, but decided to not include it in
this update due to confidence in timing. This will be the main
focus for the 12Z TAF update.


Outlook...

Friday evening through Saturday... Showers with possible
restrictions.

Saturday night through Monday...Mostly quiet and dry with high
pressure overhead.

Tuesday...Low potential (<30%) for afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...KL